The price of storage in the first half of 2018 steadily increased, and the server business is strong

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Date: 2018-03-09

Thanks to the North American data center initiative, server memory supply continues to be tight in the second half of 2017. Although the first quarter of 2018 saw a slowdown, market prices remained high, and overall market supply in the first half of 2018 is expected to increase. The still tight view will be expected to grow steadily throughout the year.


Recently, the global smartphone market has entered the traditional off-season, and the market buying momentum in the first quarter was weaker than expected. As a result, the average contract price increase of mobile memory has significantly converged over the past few quarters. The market estimates the first quarter mobile memory output value. The growth rate is flat, and the price will also be reduced from about 5% to about 3%.


The industry believes that the recent market demand is still mainly driven by the North American data center pull cargo momentum, especially the North American four major Internet service providers to promote the cloud server trend is clear, due to server demand in the first quarter pull the goods stable, so DDR4 products in 2 The monthly average spot price is about US$5, which is still about 1.1% higher than the average spot price in January. As for March, the price is still strong, and the average increase in a single season is about 3%~5%, compared with DDR3. The quotation has been stabilized in February and is expected to show a flat trend in March.


Although Samsung Electronics expects to build a new semiconductor factory in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, for the purpose of expanding the production capacity of DRAM and NAND Flash flash memory, the total investment scale and production capacity allocation have not yet been finalized. It is expected that the new Samsung plant will The project will be completed before the end of 2019, and the original Pyeongtaek plant will also begin to produce substantial capacity in the second half of the year. Therefore, the focus of 2018 will be to accelerate the increase of the 18nm manufacturing process. The progress of Hynix and Micron's manufacturing process is relatively backward. The new industry's new capacity will start in the second half of the year.


SAYA is also optimistic about the growth trend of server storage. In addition to data centers, business opportunities such as speeding up of replacement by telecom operators, and with the rise of 5G and artificial intelligence (AI) and various cloud services, future server memory growth will be strong. With 20-nm 8Gb DDR4 products already in volume production in the fourth quarter of 2017, planning will accelerate the sprint of server memory business opportunities.


The supply chain said that the demand for data center deployments and the continuous improvement of mobile phone equipment will be an important outlet for the 2 major support. Although the tight supply situation has improved significantly compared to last year, the overall DRAM is expected to be under a large amount of new capacity in the first half of the year. The price will show a gradual increase, and will also be in the seller's market in 2018. In 2018, the output value of the DRAM industry will grow by more than 30%, and the market size will reach 96 billion US dollars.


The industry pointed out that although smart phones in the first half of the year are expected to transmit audio and audio, and the low profitability of products may prompt suppliers to convert their existing production capacity to higher-margin products, it is expected that there will still be 5% to 10% of overall DRAM prices in the first half of the year. % increase, DRAM supply will also show moderate growth in 2018.


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