2018 May be a turning point in memory prices

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Source:
Date: 2017-12-19

In 2017, memory chips are all the way up, which can make flash makers happy. But in the last month or so, memory prices have started to fall off, and memory can really go back to the price of cabbage?

While the PC continues to languor for years, the demand for SSD's flash memory chips has grown strongly in the heat of the gaming PC market, so the demand for the entire storage chip market in 2017 has been reversed.


Then there is the strong growth in demand for flash memory chips for smartphones. This year, the capacity of smart phones has increased further, from 2-3gb before to 64GB, 128GB and 256GB, which will consume a large amount of flash memory chips.


Market demand, and each big flash manufacturers facing technology upgrade, lead to this year's production capacity is insufficient, does not change with the demand of the situation, the market is in a state of lack of supply for a long time, price nature is a rising tide lifts all boats.


In addition to the upstream production capacity is the key to the absolute increase in the price of flash memory, but to increase in the price of memory memory manufacturers have also played a part, the more in the case of a lack of supply, prices are, the less parts manufacturers willing to shipment, instead of hoarding and speculation, some dealers also is such.


At the end of the day, the price of the goods will continue to rise, while the manufacturers and dealers will limit the shipment, and further increase the market vacancy, thus creating a vicious circle.


Manufacturers' capacity to add capacity will be a turning point in 2018

To solve the problem of memory and flash memory, we need to get the market back to the balance of supply. At present, mobile phone capacity, flash memory capacity is the trend, and the future demand will also increase, so the key to the problem is that upstream manufacturers add capacity.

Manufacturers are pouring a lot of budget into new plant construction in 2017 to boost flash memory capacity. Samsung, which in June launched the world's largest flash memory factory in pyeongtaek, South Korea, is producing a 64-layer stack of 3D flash memory and is accelerating its production in the second half of this year.


In addition to South Korea, China's xi 'an is also a key flash source for samsung, and in late August samsung announced a $7 billion upgrade to its plant in xi 'an, which is expected to start production within three years.


Meguiar after subfamily last year China also promises to increase investment in Taiwan, is expected to invest $2 billion a year, the Taiwan factory into a global manufacturing center, a memory chip processing technology will be from the current 25 nm gradually increase to 1 x process.


SK Hynix also announced a new investment plan earlier this year, with its memory chips in wuxi, China, accounting for 15 percent of global memory chips. In addition, SK Hynix will invest 2.2 trillion won (12.8 billion yuan) in South Korea to build a flash factory, which will also lift its main force from 36 to 48 storeys to the 72-story stack in the future.


The world's main memory and flash makers have announced new plant expansion plans in the next year or two, and most will start production in 2018.


For the vast number of DIY players expect memory, flash memory from rising to flat or even depreciate the turning point in 2018, 3 d flash will completely replace the plane flash memory, 64, 72 and higher layer, 96 layer stack into the mainstream.


Flash memory will also enter the market with a balance between capacity and cost, and higher storage density QLC flash memory, which will greatly enhance the bit capacity of flash memory and alleviate market demand.


China layout flash memory chip market

Now flash memory chip makers are ramping up production of 3D flash memory, a commanding point for global flash chip makers. For chips, China's chip industry is largely empty, almost 100% dependent on imports, so that Chinese manufacturers can only afford to let samsung, Toshiba, micron and others offer prices.


The good news is that China has stepped up investment in the semiconductor industry, and the preferred area is memory chips. In 2016, ziguang acquired the new core company, founded the Yangtze river storage technology, and became the first team in the development of domestic independent memory chips.


Recently, guangbao technology and China's ziguang group jointly announced the establishment of a storage joint venture, the project signed in suzhou, total capital of 100 million dollars.


According to the data, the storage of 32 layers of 3D NAND chips in the Yangtze river has been successfully tested by the electrical characteristics and other indicators to meet the expected requirements. It is expected to achieve mass production in 2018 and full capacity in 2019.


Predictably, once in the next two years domestic 3 d flash memory, memory chip production, memory, flash memory market will usher in change, America, Japan and monopoly market situation will be changed, regardless of price and production capacity will be changed.


Anyway, for now, the memory prices will continue to rise, but this situation will soon be broken, and by 2018, as each big manufacturer's production capacity has increased, the price is expected to stabilize, not as crazy as they are now.


In other words, China's independent flash memory will break the monopoly of samsung and other big factories, and flash capacity will expand rapidly, thus driving the market price down.


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