Samsung DRAM expansion tend to be more conservative

Date: 2017-11-03

Including samsung, SK hynix, meguiar's and so on three big DRAM factory capacity expansion in recent 2 years and advanced manufacturing processes and 20 nanometers transformation difficulty increase, DRAM bit supply grow significantly slow than normal.But by the demand side, smartphone carrying capacity increases rapidly, the Internet of things and the demand of the automobile electronic also enter multiple growth stage.And therefore, in tight supply situation, DRAM prices by the second half of last year, all the way up to the end of this year, the cumulative gains have more than doubled.
With 4 gb of DDR4 module combination about the price, the third quarter of last year the average price only $13, but the fourth quarter of this year prices have surged to $30.5, not only raise price has six consecutive quarter, have gained more than 1.3 times.Take it for granted, DRAM prices also significantly boosting earnings DRAM factory, samsung DRAM business business profits quarter by quarter this year hit a record high, also became the most profitable cow samsung group.
DRAM lack for too long, however, and the price rise too much, really has brought the global electronics industry was full of complaints, in the face of pressure from customers, three big DRAM plant expansion has not really say no to the past, and as a result, samsung decided to pyongtaek 12 inches fabs 2 floor would have to expand production capacity NAND Flash part workshop space, to expand the DRAM 18 nm process capacity and be adopted.
Expansion has samsung to DRAM news spread, samsung are also didn't say clear yourself, instead of the outside world began to for samsung planning capacity, market once come out next year, samsung may amplify each month more than 100000 pieces of DRAM cast slice.However, samsung has said in the assembly has said understand, growth rate and the market will maintain a DRAM bits average growth rate is the same, that is the representative of samsung's attitudes towards expansion of DRAM capacity still tend to be conservative, and natural purpose is to maintain the strong earnings and cash flow.
Samsung last year and this year, in fact, in the cause of DRAM capital spending more than $10 billion already, but actually did not see too much DRAM capacity, the key reason lies in the process of 20 miniature enter 1 x nano, wafers cast to the output of production, the original 20 nanometers monthly production capacity of 100000 production line, after changing 1 x nano quantity drops below 80000.
In this case, the samsung new capacity can be used to fill the original natural loss of capacity, nearly two years into a $10 billion fund, actually can only maintain monthly total investment amount in the scale of 400000 pieces.Therefore, samsung capital spending next year, though a substantial increase, but most are still used in 3 d NAND and 10 nanometers wafer foundry, in DRAM on the expansion of conservative obviously.
From this perspective, samsung's intention is very obvious, is to use a DRAM of profit to support the development of other group, and Korean department such as samsung and SK hynix DRAM plant expansion plans, the new fabs to truly entered the stage of mass production, the fastest also want to wait until the fourth quarter of 2018, the actual output and wait until the first half of 2019.Thus, DRAM next year will still be tight supply, DRAM industry profit is still a good growth space.

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